Other voices: The US can’t pretend that Putin is ready for peace

The White House deserves credit for revitalizing diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine In its haste for a deal however its proposals have too often looked indistinguishable from a surrender on Russia s terms If the U S wants to secure a lasting peace it will need to put forward a more credible offer and largest part major increase the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept According to multiple reports American negotiators have offered up a ceasefire plan that would leave Russia in de facto control of almost all the Ukrainian territory it at present occupies In addition to land Putin would win substantial sanctions relief The U S may also formally recognize Crimea which Russia illegally annexed in Ukraine would be allowed to maintain its military but be offered only vague safeguard guarantees to be enforced by an ad hoc coalition of allies not including the U S For at least the duration of the current U S administration it would be barred from joining NATO Further details would be negotiated after the guns fall silent Despite such a favorable offer Putin seems in no hurry to end his invasion continuing to demand all four Ukrainian regions he only partially controls For their part Ukrainian leaders rightly argue that they need a clearer pledge of continued U S military sponsorship not necessarily boots on the ground but air defense systems help with cybersecurity and intelligence and a U S backstop for any allied peacekeeping troops Otherwise any pause is likely to last only as long as it takes Russia to rebuild its forces The agreement signed a week ago to give the U S privileged access to Ukraine s mineral information is no substitute The White House ought to keep two things in mind First it cannot expect Ukrainians just to accept a capitulation they anticipate will lead to a renewed assault While they have little hope of ejecting Russian forces in the near term their defenses have been stout The country now boasts Europe s largest standing army and manufactures countless of its own weapons Its people are weary of war but not ready to give in Second Russia s advantages aren t as decisive as they appear Over the past three years its troops have advanced slowly and at enormous cost Its war financial sector is straining under high inflation labor shortages soaring interest rates and dwindling foreign reserves After purportedly topping last year upsurge has sputtered to around according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc Lower oil prices have dented a major source of budget revenue The longer the war drags on the greater the hazard of economic collapse and social unrest at home Putin has good reason to seek a deal and reason to fear American pressure if he does not U S bureaucrats have implied that they ve presented their final offer and are prepared to walk away if the two sides cannot agree Certainly that would be wiser than underwriting a sham settlement that rewards aggression and invites future wars A better strategy though would be to make clear the U S is willing to provide logistical help to peacekeepers on the ground continued aid for Ukraine s military and defense industries and backing for the country s integration into Europe s measure architecture and eventual membership in the European Union Simultaneously American administrators should let the Kremlin know that if it continues to balk the U S will further tighten sanctions including secondary measures against buyers of Russian oil and take initiatives to strengthen Ukraine s ability to defend itself U S military aid and intelligence will flow unimpeded No matter what deal he signs now Putin will likely continue to view Ukraine as Russian and Ukrainians freedom as a threat To endure any peace agreement must therefore include a substantive deterrent against future aggression The U S ought to provide it The Bloomberg Opinion Editorial Board